ROTR lottery needs to end.

bsmcneil

DIS Veteran
Joined
May 22, 2006
Apparently you don't.
How do I demonstrate I don't? The PP mentioned, "On that very active board we did notice there were hardly any reports of people trying on 2 days and not succeeding for at least one. Very rare. Not impossible but so rare it was only mentioned a couple times while success was reported for hundreds of parties." but isn't it somewhere between possible and likely that they are taking in information that agrees with their perspective (and that the people self-selecting to post on a message board are not a control group of all of those who tried to experience the ride)? I mean - it's great if that's how it worked out for everyone but it's also quite likely that confirmation bias came into play (as it does with just about everything). Personal anecdotes without data - great but also open to not being the literal truth.
 

Heather07438

WDW Apprentice
Joined
Oct 20, 2015
How do I demonstrate I don't? The PP mentioned, "On that very active board we did notice there were hardly any reports of people trying on 2 days and not succeeding for at least one. Very rare. Not impossible but so rare it was only mentioned a couple times while success was reported for hundreds of parties." but isn't it somewhere between possible and likely that they are taking in information that agrees with their perspective (and that the people self-selecting to post on a message board are not a control group of all of those who tried to experience the ride)? I mean - it's great if that's how it worked out for everyone but it's also quite likely that confirmation bias came into play (as it does with just about everything). Personal anecdotes without data - great but also open to not being the literal truth.
When it comes to confirmation bias too frequently people have it skewed in the other direction with RotR. They clench on to posts about failure because it validates their frustration about not being guaranteed to ride.

We had a trip planned when RotR first opened and after reporting my experience became very active on that board for a few months. What we collectively found was if people prepared themselves they were much more likely to get a BG than not get a BG. And if they had 2 days booked they were overwhelming likely to get at least 1 BG, like over 95% (really it was like 99% but I left some leeway since people might be less than willing to share bombing out). You’ll need to scrub these boards to find even a couple examples of people failing both times.
 

LanceQ

Mouseketeer
Joined
Sep 2, 2019
How do I demonstrate I don't? The PP mentioned, "On that very active board we did notice there were hardly any reports of people trying on 2 days and not succeeding for at least one. Very rare. Not impossible but so rare it was only mentioned a couple times while success was reported for hundreds of parties." but isn't it somewhere between possible and likely that they are taking in information that agrees with their perspective (and that the people self-selecting to post on a message board are not a control group of all of those who tried to experience the ride)? I mean - it's great if that's how it worked out for everyone but it's also quite likely that confirmation bias came into play (as it does with just about everything). Personal anecdotes without data - great but also open to not being the literal truth.
Someone saying that "the majority of people posting on the board say X" is not confirmation bias. Is that a scientifically generated sample? No, of course not. But it's not the original writer's confirmation bias just because they report back what they read.

If you could objectively prove that they were deliberately ignoring just as many people saying the opposite, you could argue confirmation bias. But until you can, there's no reason not to take those people at their word.
 

joelkfla

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 13, 2001
I wonder whether the capacity of the attraction is enough to give every guest one timed entry per life, while still maintaining boarding groups for everyone who's no longer a ROTR virgin. The timed entries would have priority over the boarding groups. After getting their timed entry, any subsequent rides, in the same or future visits, would have to be obtained thru the current system.

I'm sure people would figure out a way to scam the system, as they always do, and those loopholes would have to be closed as they were discovered.
 
  • bsmcneil

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 22, 2006
    Someone saying that "the majority of people posting on the board say X" is not confirmation bias. Is that a scientifically generated sample? No, of course not. But it's not the original writer's confirmation bias just because they report back what they read.

    If you could objectively prove that they were deliberately ignoring just as many people saying the opposite, you could argue confirmation bias. But until you can, there's no reason not to take those people at their word.
    Confirmation bias is actually based in unintentional actions/thoughts.
     

    Texasfam4

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Jul 15, 2016
    I really think this online race to vie for daily rides on ROTR is terrible. Why not change it to regular que lines like everything else?
    I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
     

    bsmcneil

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 22, 2006
    I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
    I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
    I am having a similar feeling re: January and my kiddos. Luckily, I think there will be enough to distract them.
     
  • Carol_

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 29, 2019
    I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
    I actually prefer Star Tours (and FOP at AK). This ride is a pain in lots of ways and it’s forever breaking down. It has some cool elements but try to get a reservation to go build a droid or light saber for more hands-on ($$) fun.
     

    LanceQ

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Sep 2, 2019
    I actually prefer Star Tours (and FOP at AK). This ride is a pain in lots of ways and it’s forever breaking down. It has some cool elements but try to get a reservation to go build a droid or light saber for more hands-on ($$) fun.
    What a strange take. Don't like the ride, don't go. But to everyone else, that's not an either/or choice.
     

    yaya74

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 18, 2006
    I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
    You (or your kids) can start practicing getting the boarding pass at home. I highly recommend it.
     

    Texasfam4

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Jul 15, 2016
    I actually prefer Star Tours (and FOP at AK). This ride is a pain in lots of ways and it’s forever breaking down. It has some cool elements but try to get a reservation to go build a droid or light saber for more hands-on ($$) fun.
    I’m hoping to get in a half day at AK, so we’ll check FOP out too. I’ve seen that line can be 2 hrs long too. So many cool things, so little time! Ha
     

    Texasfam4

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Jul 15, 2016
    I am having a similar feeling re: January and my kiddos. Luckily, I think there will be enough to distract them.
    We only go to Disney once every few years, so my kids have always been so excited about the things we did get to do and see, that they haven’t gotten too hung up on things we didn’t get to do. I guess that’s the beauty of not knowing what you’re missing out on. But we will still try like heck to get on this ride! Ha
     

    kc51570

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jan 5, 2015
    Luckily we all 4 now have phones, so as we get closer (and we’ve told them that we’re going), we can all have family practices. :woohoo:
    My teenager was the one to score our boarding group with 0 practice and without ever reading a message board. 😃 He did have the newest phone out of us though.
     

    traviesojmt

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Apr 2, 2006
    My DH jokes that we invited our DS23 for the sole purpose of getting us on ROTR. He did his job well too. He didn’t practice or stress about it. We woke him up at 6:50 am. We were staying at All-Star movies and service was not great in the room. Myself, DH, and DD18 were all outside the room about 10 til prepped to try and snag a boarding pass. Our DS23 walked out at one min til and got boarding group 6. Lol. Our second day at Hollywood Studios, he managed group 2. He literally had been awake about 5 minutes. He made it seem very easy.
    My DH and I aren’t spring chickens and we aren’t as quick on our phones as our kids so I don’t know how we would have done on our own.
    Unfortunately, I don’t know that there is a system that would make everyone happy.
     

    kevgraub

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 4, 2009
    Luckily we all 4 now have phones, so as we get closer (and we’ve told them that we’re going), we can all have family practices. :woohoo:
    I truly feel that practicing is overrated.

    Now, if it is something you want to do to help get your Disney fix for the day and build some of the excitement for the trip - then by all means plug ahead. I get that.

    However, I think running through the process once is generally enough if all you are trying to do is get a BG out of it. All you need to do is figure out where the buttons will pop up on the phone. I practiced one time before our trip (a successful 1:00 pm practice). I then just showed the rest of the family where the buttons would be and what to do. First day my daughter got our BG, second day my wife got it. Neither had ever practiced.

    I think the biggest thing to do is to make sure you are following the rest of the tips on here (check to see if wifi or cellular is faster; use a separate device to count down from time.gov; use the ATAT method; etc.). The actual clicking of buttons really is not a complicated enough process that you need to practice it over and over.
     


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